■This Month in Real Estate | AUGUST 2017

■Condo & Rental Market Report | Q2 2017

Average Condo Price Up Year-Over-Year in Q2 '17

July 24, 2017 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos announced the release of TREB's Q2 2017 Condo Market Report. Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,223 condominium apartment sales reported through TREB's MLS® System between April and the end of June. This result was down by eight per cent compared to 8,942 sales reported in Q2 2016.

New listings of condominium apartments were up slightly on a year-over-year basis by 0.7 per cent to 13,682.

"Despite the recent dip in overall GTA home sales, the condominium apartment market was quite resilient, especially when compared to low-rise market segments. Condo apartment sales accounted for a greater share of overall transactions during the spring compared to the same period last year. Market conditions also remained tight, which resulted in the continuation of strong annual rates of price growth," said Mr. Syrianos.

The average selling price for condominium apartments increased by 28.1 per cent compared to Q2 2016. The average selling price for the TREB market area as a whole was $532,032, with the average price in the City of Toronto higher, at $566,513.

"Recent consumer survey results from Ipsos suggest that condominium apartments will continue to gain in popularity with home buyers over the next year. This makes sense, given that many households, especially first-time buyers looking to live in the City of Toronto, have turned their attention in increasing numbers to less expensive forms of ownership housing," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.


Strong Growth in Average Rents in Q2 2017

TORONTO, ONTARIO, July 24, 2017 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos announced the continuation of very tight conditions in the condominium apartment rental market in the second quarter of 2017. 

The number of rental transactions reported through TREB’s MLS® System remained in line with Q2 2016 levels, while the number of units listed at some point during the quarter declined year-over-year. Average annual rates of rent growth for one- and two-bedroom condominium apartments were over eight per cent. 

“The Greater Toronto Area continues to be a very attractive place to live for many people, some of whom choose to rent. While rental demand remained very strong from a historic perspective in the second quarter, the supply of available rental units remained constrained, and average rents continued to grow well-above current and expected future rates of inflation,” said Mr. Syrianos. 

“It is clear that we continue to suffer from a lack of available rental units. The Fair Housing Plan announced by the Government of Ontario committed to measures designed to increase housing supply. Conversely, the Fair Housing Plan also expanded rent controls, which could preclude investment in rental properties, thereby further constricting supply. With different policy components potentially at odds, it will be interesting to see the eventual impact of the Fair Housing Plan on the rental market in the GTA,” continued Mr. Syrianos. 

The average one-bedroom condominium apartment rent was up by 8.8 per cent year-over-year in the second quarter to $1,861 per month. The average two-bedroom rent was up by 8.7 per cent to $2,533. 

“Competition between would-be renters increased in the second quarter of this year relative to the same time period in 2016. This meant that average rents increased by much more than the rate of inflation. In addition, the annual pace of rent growth also increased compared to Q2 2016, reflecting the fact that, generally speaking, it has become harder to find a place to rent this year compared to last,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

■Market Watch | August, 2017

Market Continued to Adjust in July

August 3, 2017 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 5,921 residential transactions through TREB's MLS® System in July 2017. This result was down by 40.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis, led by the detached market segment – both in the City of Toronto and surrounding regions. While sales were down, the number of new listings reported were only slightly (+5.1 per cent) above last year's level.

"A recent release from the Ontario government confirmed TREB's own research which found that foreign buyers represented a small proportion of overall home buying activity in the GTA. Clearly, the year-over-year decline we experienced in July had more to do with psychology, with would-be home buyers on the sidelines waiting to see how market conditions evolve," said Mr. Syrianos.

"Summer market statistics are often not the best indicators of housing market conditions. We generally see an uptick in sales following Labour Day, as a greater cross-section of would-be buyers and sellers start to consider listing and/or purchasing a home. As we move through the fall, we should start to get a better sense of the impacts of the Fair Housing Plan and higher borrowing costs," said TREB CEO John DiMichele.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark price was up by 18 per cent on a year-over-year basis. However, the Composite Benchmark was down by 4.6 per cent relative to June. Monthly MLS® HPI declines were driven more so by single-family home types. The average selling price for all home types combined was up by five per cent year-over-year to $746,218.

"Home buyers benefitted from more choice in the market this July compared to the same time last year. This was reflected in home prices and home price growth. Looking forward, if we do see some would-be home buyers move off the sidelines and back into the market without a similar increase in new listings, we could see some of this newfound choice erode. The recent changes in the sales and price trends have masked the fact that housing supply remains an issue in the GTA," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.

■This Month in Real Estate | JULY 2017

■Market Watch | July, 2017

More Moderate Price Growth in June TORONTO, July 6, 2017 – Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,974 sales through TREB’s MLS® System in June 2017 – down by 37.3 per cent in comparison to June 2016. The number of new residential listings entered into TREB’s MLS® System, at 19,614, was up by 15.9 per cent compared to June 2016. While this annual rate of growth was sizeable, it represented a more moderate annual rate of growth compared to May 2017, when new listings were up by 48.9 per cent year-over-year.

“We are in a period of flux that often follows major government policy announcements pointed at the housing market. On one hand, consumer survey results tell us many households are very interested in purchasing a home in the near future, but some of these would-be buyers seem to be temporarily on the sidelines waiting to see the real impact of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan. On the other hand, we have existing home owners who are listing their home because they feel price growth may have peaked. The end result has been a better supplied market and a moderating annual pace of price growth,” said Mr. Syrianos.

Annual growth rates for MLS® HPI benchmark prices have moderated over the past two months, but remain strong. The MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was up by 25.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis in June. June’s average selling price for all home types combined for the TREB market area was $793,915, representing a 6.3 per cent increase compared to the same month in 2016. A better supplied market has certainly been a key factor influencing the moderation in price growth.

“Recent Ipsos survey results suggest that home buying activity in the GTA will remain strong moving forward. The year-over-year dip in home sales we have experienced over the last two months seem to be the result of would-be buyers putting their decision to purchase temporarily on hold while they monitor the impact of the Fair Housing Plan. On the supply side of the market, it certainly looks as though buyers will benefit from more choice in the second half of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016,”said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis and Service Channels.

■This Month in Real Estate | JUNE 2017

■Market Watch | June, 2017

Active Listings Increase in May

June 5, 2017 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Larry Cerqua announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 10,196 sales through TREB's MLS® System in May 2017 – down by 20.3 per cent compared to 12,790 sales reported in May 2016. Sales of detached homes were down by 26.3 per cent. Sales of condominium apartments were down by 6.4 per cent.

Active listings – the number of properties available for sale at the end of May – were up by 42.9 per cent compared to the lowest level in 15 years recorded in May 2016, but remained below the average and peak during that period. The number increased considerably for low-rise home types including detached and semi-detached houses and townhouses. Active listings for condominium apartments were down compared to May 2016.

"Home buyers definitely benefitted from a better supplied market in May, both in comparison to the same time last year and to the first four months of 2017. However, even with the robust increase in active listings, inventory levels remain low. At the end of May, we had less than two months of inventory. This is why we continued to see very strong annual rates of price growth, albeit lower than the peak growth rates earlier this year," said Mr. Cerqua.

Selling prices continued to increase strongly in May compared to the same month in 2016. The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark price was up by 29 per cent year-over-year. The average selling price for all home types combined for the TREB Market Area as a whole was up by 14.9 per cent to $863,910. Year-over-year price increases were greater for condominium apartments compared to low-rise home types. This likely reflects the fact that the low-rise market segments benefitted most from the increase in listings.

"The actual, or normalized, effect of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan remains to be seen. In the past, some housing policy changes have initially led to an overreaction on the part of homeowners and buyers, which later balanced out. On the listings front, the increase in active listings suggests that homeowners, after a protracted delay, are starting to react to the strong price growth we've experienced over the past year by listing their home for sale to take advantage of these equity gains," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.