■Market Watch | October, 2018

GTA REALTORS® Release September Stats

October 3, 2018 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Garry Bhaura announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 6,455 sales through TREB's MLS® System in September 2018 – up 1.9 per cent compared to September 2017. The average selling price for September 2018 sales was up by 2.9 per cent over the same period to $796,786. The MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was up by two per cent year-over-year.

New listings entered into TREB's MLS® System in September 2018 amounted to 15,920 – down by 3.1 per cent compared to September 2017. With sales up year-over-year and new listings down, market conditions became tighter. Many buyers may have found it more difficult to find a home meeting their needs.

"It is healthy to see sales and prices in many areas across the Greater Toronto Area up a bit, compared to last year's lows. At the same, however, it is important to remember that TREB's market area is made up of over 500 communities. Market conditions have obviously unfolded differently across these communities. This is why it's important to work with a REALTOR® who is familiar with local market conditions in your areas of interest," said Mr. Bhaura.

"While higher borrowing costs and tougher mortgage qualification rules have kept sales levels off the record pace set in 2016, many households remain positive about home ownership as a quality long-term investment. As the GTA population continues to grow, the real challenge in the housing market will be supply rather than demand. The Toronto Real Estate Board is especially concerned with issues affecting housing supply as we move towards municipal elections across the region," added Mr. Bhaura.

On a monthly basis, after preliminary seasonal adjustment, sales edged up by 0.2 per cent in September 2018 compared to August 2018. The average selling price, after preliminary seasonal adjustment, edged lower by 0.5 per cent month-over-month.

"Generally speaking, annual rates of price growth have been stronger for higher density home types in 2018, including condominium apartments, townhouses and semi-detached houses. In many neighbourhoods, these home types provide more affordable home ownership options. This is why a policy focus on increasing mid-density housing options throughout the GTA is important," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.

■This Month in Real Estate | SEPTEMBER 2018

■Market Watch | September, 2018

GTA REALTORS® Release August Stats

September 6, 2018 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Garry Bhaura announced sales and price increases on a year-over-year basis in August. Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 6,839 sales through TREB's MLS® System in August 2018 – an 8.5 per cent increase compared to August 2017.

Both the average selling price, at $765,270, and the MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark for August 2018 were up compared to the same month in 2017, by 4.7 per cent and 1.5 per cent respectively. The average selling price increased by more than the MLS® HPI Composite due, at least in part, to a change in the mix of sales compared to last year. Detached home sales were up by double digits on a year-over-year percentage basis – substantially more than many other less-expensive home types.

"It is encouraging to see a continued resurgence in the demand for ownership housing. Many home buyers who had initially moved to the sidelines due to the Ontario Fair Housing Plan and new mortgage lending guidelines have renewed their search for a home and are getting deals done much more so than last year. In a region where the economy remains strong and the population continues to grow, ownership housing remains a solid long-term investment," said Mr. Bhaura.

Month-over-month sales and price growth also continued in August. On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, August 2018 sales were up by two per cent compared to July 2018. The seasonally adjusted August 2018 average selling price was down slightly by 0.2 per cent compared to July 2018, following strong monthly increases in May, June and July.

"Market conditions in the summer of 2018, including this past August, were tighter than what was experienced in the summer of 2017. In August, the annual rate of sales growth outpaced the annual rate of new listings growth. We only have slightly more than two-and-a-half months of inventory in the TREB market area as a whole and less than two months of inventory in the City of Toronto. This means that despite the fact the sales remain off the record highs from 2016 and 2017, many GTA neighbourhoods continue to suffer from a lack of inventory. This could present a problem if demand continues to accelerate over the next year, which is expected," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.

■Market Watch | August, 2018

GTA REALTORS® Release July Stats

August 3, 2018 - Toronto Real Estate Board President Garry Bhaura announced strong growth in the number of home sales and the average selling price reported by Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® in July 2018.

"Home sales result in substantial spin-off benefits to the economy, so the positive results over the last two months are encouraging. However, no one will argue that housing supply remains an issue. The new provincial government and candidates for the upcoming municipal elections need to concentrate on policies focused on enhancing the supply of housing and reducing the upfront tax burden represented by land transfer taxes, province-wide and additionally in the City of Toronto," said Mr. Bhaura.

Residential sales reported through TREB's MLS® System for July 2018 amounted to 6,961 – up 18.6 per cent compared to July 2017. Over the same period, the average selling price was up by 4.8 per cent to $782,129, including a moderate increase for detached home types. New listings in July 2018 were down by 1.8 per cent year-over-year.

Preliminary seasonal adjustment pointed to strong month-over-month increases of 6.6 per cent and 3.1 per cent respectively for sales and average price. Seasonally adjusted sales were at the highest level for 2018 and the seasonally adjusted average price reached the highest level since May 2017.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark for July 2018 was down slightly compared to July 2017. However, the annual growth rate looks to be trending toward positive territory in the near future.

"We have certainly experienced an increase in demand for ownership housing so far this summer. It appears that some people who initially moved to the sidelines due to the psychological impact of the Fair Housing Plan and changes to mortgage lending guidelines have re-entered the market. Home buyers in the GTA recognize that ownership housing is a quality long-term investment," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.

■Condo & Rental Market Report | Q2 2018

Condo Market Report

Average Condo Price Continues to Climb in Q2 '18

July 17, 2018 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Garry Bhaura announced that the average selling price for condominium apartments sold through TREB's MLS® System in the second quarter of 2018 was up by 5.4 per cent year-over-year to $561,338.

The highest average selling price was in the City of Toronto, at $603,480 – up 6.5 per cent compared to Q2 2017.

"Condominium apartments have outperformed other housing types over the past year, in terms of price growth. It has been a seller's market in many neighbourhoods for this home type, which is why we have continued to report average price growth more than twice the rate of inflation," said Mr. Bhaura.

Condominium apartment sales through TREB's MLS® System amounted to 6,837 in Q2 2018 – down 16.5 per cent from 8,188 sales reported in Q2 2017. However, the number of new condominium apartment listings was down by 15.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis. The fact that sales and new listings were down by similar annual rates suggests that market conditions have remained similar over the past year, which has supported continued price growth.

"First time buyers continue to be a key driver of condominium apartment demand. The relative affordability of condos versus low-rise home types, especially with the onset of stricter mortgage qualification guidelines and generally higher borrowing costs, has also been a key factor underpinning tight condo market conditions and continued average price growth," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.


Rental Market Report

Strong Condo Rent Growth Continued in Q2 2018

July 17, 2018 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Garry Bhaura announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® continued to report strong average rent increases for GTA condominium apartments rented through TREB’s MLS® System in the second quarter of 2018 relative to Q2 2017. “The demand for condominium apartment rentals remained strong compared to the number of units available for rent. Current market conditions point to the fact that renters have little choice when it comes to finding a place to live. Governments need to look at ways to increase the supply of rental accommodation, both in terms of purpose-built rental properties and individual investor-held units. This would go a long way to easing the pace of rent growth in the GTA,” said Mr. Bhaura. The average one-bedroom condominium apartment rent increased by 10.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis to $2,055 in Q2 2018. The number of one-bedroom condominium apartments rented through TREB’s MLS® System amounted to 4,879 – a 2.9 per cent decrease compared to Q2 2017. The average two-bedroom condominium apartment rent increased by 8.8 per cent on a year-over-year basis to $2,755 in Q2 2018. The number of two-bedroom condominium apartments rented through TREB’s MLS® System amounted to 3,104 – a 1.2 per cent increase compared to Q2 2017. “Recent government policy changes, including rent controls, have not alleviated the strong upward pressure on monthly rents for available condominium apartments in the GTA. New, investor-held condominium apartments entering the market have not been enough to provide the needed balance in the condo rental market. As a result, the strong competition between renters continues to sustain double-digit or near-double-digit annual average rent increases,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

■This Month in Real Estate | JULY 2018

■Market Watch | July, 2018

GTA REALTORS® Release June Stats

July 5, 2018 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Garry Bhaura, in his first market release as TREB President, is pleased to announce some positive signs with respect to the housing market.

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,082 home sales through TREB's MLS® System in June 2018 – up 2.4 per cent compared to the low June 2017 result. After preliminary seasonal adjustment, sales were also up 17.6 per cent on a monthly basis between May 2018 and June 2018, continuing the trend of somewhat volatile month-over-month changes over the past year as home buyers reacted to various policy changes impacting the market.

"Home ownership has proven to be a positive long-term investment. After some adjustment to the Fair Housing Plan, the new Office of The Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) stress test requirement and generally higher borrowing costs, home buyers are starting to move back into the market, with sales trending up from last year's lows. Market conditions appear to be tightening, with sales accounting for a greater share of listings, as new listings have dropped compared to last year," said Mr. Bhaura.

The average selling price edged up by two per cent on a year-over-year basis to $807,871 in June 2018. After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the average selling price was also up by 3.3 per cent month-over-month between May 2018 and June 2018. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was down by 4.8 per cent on a year-over-year basis, but remained basically flat month-over-month. The difference in the year-over-year rates of change between the average price and the MLS® HPI was likely due, at least in part, to a change in the mix of properties sold in June 2018 compared to June 2017, with low-rise home types accounting for a greater share of sales in June 2018.

"The expectation is to see improvement in sales over the next year. Over the same period, however, it is likely that issues surrounding the supply of listings will persist. This suggests that competition between buyers could increase, exerting increased upward pressure on home prices. With a new provincial government in place and municipal elections on the horizon, housing supply should be top-of-mind for policy makers," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis and Service Channels.