Monday, May 6, 2019

■Market Watch | MAY, 2019

GTA REALTORS® Release April 2019 Stats
May 6, 2019 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Garry Bhaura announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported a substantial year-over-year increase in home sales in April 2019. The number of residential transactions jumped by 16.8 per cent to 9,042 compared to 7,744 in April 2018. On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up 11.3 per cent compared to March 2019.

New listings were also up year-over-year by eight per cent. However, the annual growth rate for new listings was much lower than that reported for sales. This suggests that market conditions continued to tighten which points toward an acceleration in price growth.

"The strong year-over-year growth in sales is obviously a good news story and likely represents some catch-up from a slow start to the year. TREB's sales outlook for 2019 anticipates an increase relative to 2018. It should be noted, however, that growth in new listings is not keeping pace with sales. This points to the ongoing housing supply issue in the GTA. In this regard TREB welcomes the provincial government's Housing Supply Action Plan announced last week to reduce red tape and improve the mix of housing types. TREB provided input on the Plan through submissions and participation on working groups," said Mr. Bhaura.

The year-over-year rate of price growth generally edged up in April relative to the first three months of the year. The MLS® HPI Composite benchmark was up by 3.2 per cent – the highest rate of growth in more than a year. The average selling price was up by 1.9 per cent to $820,148, representing the strongest annual rate of growth so far in 2019. On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, the average selling price was also up by 1.1 per cent compared to March 2019.

Price growth continued to be driven by the condominium apartment segment and higher-density low-rise segments. The average price for detached houses dipped year-over-year, specifically in regions surrounding the City of Toronto. The detached market segment, with the highest price point on average, has arguably been hardest hit by measures such as the OSFI stress test.

"While sales were up year-over-year in April, it is important to note that they remain well-below April levels for much of the past decade. Many potential home buyers arguably remain on the sidelines as they reassess their options in light of the OSFI-mandated two percentage point stress test on mortgages. Longer term borrowing costs have trended lower this year and the outlook for short-term rates, for which the Bank of Canada holds the lever, is flat to down this year. Unfortunately, against this backdrop, we have seen no movement toward flexibility in the OSFI stress test," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Chief Market Analyst.

■Condo & Rental Market Report | Q1 2019




Condo Market Report

April 24, 2019 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Garry Bhaura announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 4,731 condominium apartment sales through TREB's MLS® System in the first quarter of 2019. This result was down by 6.8 per cent compared to Q1 of 2018.

New condominium apartment listings entered into TREB's MLS® System were up by 2.4 per cent compared to Q1 2018, with 8,222 listings being added in 2019 versus 8,029 listings added in the first three months of 2018.

"While we experienced a slightly better-supplied condo market in the first quarter of 2019, the market segment remained tight enough to retain the highest year-over-year rate of price growth compared to other major home types. Condos continue to provide prospective buyers with a relatively affordable housing option in the GTA, especially given the impact of the OSFI-mandated mortgage stress test," said Mr. Bhaura.

The average price of a condominium apartment increased by 4.5 per cent from $533,520 in Q1 2018 to $557,377 in Q1 2019. Year-over-year price growth in the City of Toronto, which accounted for 69 per cent of transactions, was slightly higher at 5.4 per cent resulting in an average price of $603,243.

Condominium apartment listings, in both the ownership and rental markets, can be influenced by the completion of new condominium apartment projects. According to CMHC, condo apartment completions were up substantially year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, which could account for an uptick in condo ownership and rental listings in Q1 2019. Conversely, condo apartment completions were down year-over-year in Q1 2019, which could arguably impact listings in the opposite manner over the next three months.

"The condominium apartment rental market remained very tight through the first three months of 2019. Average one-bedroom and two-bedroom rents were up well-above the rate of inflation on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter. However, the condo rental market also benefitted from an increase in the number of units listed, resulting in more choice for prospective renters. With this said, we would need to see a number of quarters with listings growth outstripping rental transaction growth in order for the market to become more balanced," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Chief Market Analyst.


Rental Market Report

April 3, 2019 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Garry Bhaura announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 6,646 condominium apartment rental transactions through TREB’s MLS® System in the first quarter of 2019. This result was up by 7.7 per cent compared to Q1 2018. Rental transactions were up for bachelor, one-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments.

The number of condominium rental apartments listed at some point during the first quarter of 2019 was also up on a year-over-year basis by 22.4 per cent – outstripping the annual growth rate for rental transactions.

“It makes sense that we continued to see an increase in condominium apartment rentals during the last quarter. The GTA’s population continues to grow as people are attracted to the region by its strong economy and diversity. At the same time, it was also good to see an increase in the number of units listed for rent. However, with average rents continuing to increase well-above the rate of inflation on an annual basis, market conditions clearly remain tight. Development of more rental supply is imperative to the long-term sustainability of the GTA rental market,” said Mr. Bhaura.

The average Q1 2019 one-bedroom condominium apartment rent for the GTA as a whole was $2,143 – up 7.4 per cent compared to Q1 2018. Over the same period, the average two-bedroom condominium apartment rent increased by six per cent to $2,811.

“Affordable rental housing is an important component in the overall competitiveness of the GTA. Businesses and individuals are more likely to locate in regions where there is a ready supply of affordable housing alternatives. While condominium apartment investor-owners have provided the great majority of new rental stock over the past decade, we know there is a need for many more rental units, as evidenced by vacancy rates hovering around one per cent. TREB looks forward to working with policy makers in the design of proactive housing policies pointed at the development of new rental supply, including during the recently announced City of Toronto Housing TO consultations,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Chief Market Analyst.