■Market Watch | January, 2018

GTA REALTORS® Release December/Annual Stats

January 4, 2018 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 92,394 sales through TREB's MLS® System in 2017. This total was down 18.3 per cent compared to the record set in 2016.

Record sales in Q1 were followed by a decline in Q2 and Q3 after the Ontario Fair Housing Plan (FHP) was announced. The pace of sales picked up in Q4, as the impact of the FHP started to wane, and some buyers arguably brought forward their home purchase in response to the new OSFI stress test guidelines effective January 1, 2018.

"Much of the sales volatility in 2017 was brought about by government policy decisions. Research from TREB, the provincial government and Statistics Canada showed that foreign home buying was not a major driver of sales in the GTA. However, the Ontario Fair Housing Plan, which included a foreign buyer tax, had a marked psychological impact on the marketplace. Looking forward, government policy could continue to influence consumer behavior in 2018, as changes to federal mortgage lending guidelines come into effect," said Mr. Syrianos.

The average selling price for 2017 as a whole was $822,681 – up 12.7 per cent compared to 2016. This annual growth was driven more so by extremely tight market conditions during the first four months of the year. In the latter two-thirds of 2017, fewer sales combined with increased listings resulted in slower price growth. In December, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 7.2 per cent year over year, and the overall average selling price was up by 0.7 per cent year over year.

"It is interesting to note that home price growth in the second half of 2017 differed substantially depending on market segment. The detached market segment – the most expensive on average – experienced the slowest pace of growth as many buyers looked to less expensive options. Conversely, the condominium apartment segment experienced double-digit growth, as condos accounted for a growing share of transactions," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.

■This Month in Real Estate | DECEMBER 2017

■Market Watch | December, 2017

GTA REALTORS® Release November Stats

December 5, 2017 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,374 transactions through TREB's MLS® System in November 2017. This result was up compared to October 2017, bucking the regular seasonal trend. On a year-over-year basis, sales were down by 13.3 per cent compared to November 2016.

New listings entered into TREB's MLS® System in November 2017 amounted to 14,349 – up by 37.2 per cent compared to November 2016, when the supply of listings was very low from a historic perspective.

"We have seen an uptick in demand for ownership housing in the GTA this fall, over and above the regular seasonal trend. Similar to the Greater Vancouver experience, the impact of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan and particularly the foreign buyer tax may be starting to wane. On top of this, it is also possible that the upcoming changes to mortgage lending guidelines, which come into effect in January, have prompted some households to speed up their home buying decision," said Mr. Syrianos.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price was up by 8.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis in November 2017. The average selling price for all home types combined was down by two per cent compared to November 2016, due in large part to a smaller share of detached home sales versus last year. On a year-to-date basis, the average selling price was up by 13.4 per cent compared to the same period last year. High density home types continued to lead the way in terms of price growth, with the average condominium apartment price up by double-digits compared to November 2016.

"Changes in market conditions have not been uniform across market segments. In line with insights from consumer polling undertaken by Ipsos in the spring, we are still seeing seller's market conditions for townhouses and condominium apartments in many neighbourhoods versus more balanced market conditions for detached and semi-detached houses. We will have more insights to share about consumer intentions for 2018 at the end of January when TREB releases its third annual Market Year in Review and Outlook report," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.

■This Month in Real Estate | NOVEMBER 2017

■Market Watch | November, 2017

GTA REALTORS® Release October Stats

November 2, 2017 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos reported 7,118 residential sales through TREB's MLS® System in October 2017. This result represented an above-average increase between September and October of almost 12 per cent, pointing to stronger fall market conditions.

On a year-over-year basis, October sales were down compared to 9,715 transactions in September 2016. Total sales reported through the first 10 months of 2017 amounted to 80,198 – down from 99,233 for the same time period in 2016.

"Every year we generally see a jump in sales between September and October. However, this year that increase was more pronounced than usual compared to the previous ten years. So, while the number of transactions was still down relative to last year's record pace, it certainly does appear that sales momentum is picking up," said Mr. Syrianos.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark price was up by 9.7 per cent on a year-over-year basis in October. Annual rates of price growth were strongest for townhouses and condominium apartments. The average selling price for October transactions was $780,104 – up by 2.3 per cent compared to the average of $762,691 in October 2016.

"The housing market in the GTA has been impacted by a number of policy changes at the provincial and federal levels. Similar to the track followed in the Greater Vancouver Area, it appears that the psychological impact of the Fair Housing Plan, including the tax on foreign buyers, is starting to unwind," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.

■Condo & Rental Market Report | Q3 2017

Condo Market Conditions Remain Tight in Q3 2017

October 23, 2017 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos reported continued average price growth on a year-over-year basis for condominium apartments listed and sold through TREB's MLS® System by Greater Toronto Area REALTORS®. The average selling price was $510,206 in Q3 2017 – up by 22.7 per cent compared to the average of $415,894 reported in Q3 2016.

"The condominium apartment market segment has exhibited the strongest average rates of price growth since the spring, relative to other major market segments. Competition between buyers remains strong, as listings remain below last year's very constrained levels. Over the past few months, TREB has participated in discussions at various levels of government pointed at developing solutions for the housing supply issue in the GTA. As these discussions continue, it will be important to remember that the condominium apartment market is not immune to a listings shortage," said Mr. Syrianos.

"TREB will also be paying close attention to the potential impacts of the new OSFI Guideline B- 20 concerning new mortgage rules and underwriting standards, and the possibility of a vacancy tax in the City of Toronto. We will be asking consumers about their opinion on these initiatives, from the prospective of buying and selling intentions, during our fall polling cycle," continued Mr. Syrianos.

There were 5,684 condominium apartment sales reported through TREB's MLS® System in the third quarter of 2017. This result was down from 7,991 sales reported during the same period in 2016.

New condominium apartment listings were also down on a year-over-year basis by 10 per cent to 9,845 in Q3 2017 compared to 10,967 in Q2 2016.

"Condominium apartments will likely account for a greater share of home sales as we move forward. Consumer polling undertaken for TREB by Ipsos in the spring pointed to increased buying intentions for condominium apartments. With this in mind, it is not surprising that we have continued to see robust price growth, as demand has remained strong relative to available listings," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.


Competition Between Renters Remains Strong in Q3

TORONTO, ONTARIO, October 23, 2017 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos announced that year-over-year increases in average rents for condominium apartments were up very strongly in the third quarter, based on rental transactions reported by Greater Toronto REALTORS® through TREB’s MLS® System.

The average rent for one-bedroom condominium apartments in the TREB market area was up by 11.2 per cent on an annual basis to $1,976 in Q3 2017. The average two-bedroom condominium apartment rent was up by 7.7 per cent over the same period to $2,607.

“Competition between renters remained very strong for available units in Q3. It is clear that supply is part of the issue. Different levels of government have committed to looking at housing supply through the policy lens. TREB has participated in these policy discussions and looks forward to continuing the dialogue. To this end, TREB does have concerns that increased rent controls and a possible vacancy tax in the City of Toronto could serve to reduce the supply of available rental units as potential investors look to less-regulated sectors in which to invest,” said Mr. Syrianos.

The number of condominium apartments listed during the third quarter and the number of rental agreements signed were down by similar amounts on a year-over-year basis.

“It is reasonable to assume that the vacancy rate for condominium apartments has trended lower this year. If the current relationship between rental demand and supply remains in place moving forward, rent increases for available units will continue to trend well-above the rate of inflation. Economic and demographic trends suggest that rental demand will increase and there are real concerns that the already constrained supply of units for rent could get worse,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

■This Month in Real Estate | OCTOBER 2017